Posted on Wednesday, August 22, 2012
We overestimate technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long term—even when we know that we tend to do so. This long-cited axiom is playing out again in the case of social media.
There should be no doubt about the short-term overestimation, given the initial exuberance and now the collapse of stocks like Zynga, Groupon and Facebook.
In an article at Forbes, I write about why the longer-term underestimation is harder to pin down, but even more dangerous to long-term success. And it is now well underway.
Please take a read and let me know what you think of it: Bubble Deflated, Social Media Will Now Change the World