Posted on Thursday, February 20, 2014
In my latest column at Forbes, I lay out six technological megatrends that will transform every information-intensive industry over the next five to ten years.
These industries are up for “reimagination,” to use a term popularized by Mary Meeker, the Kleiner Perkins venture capitalist. That’s because, as the following figure shows, the exponential progression of these technologies will create openings for new killer apps that overwhelm incremental business change. Huge market share and market value are being thrown up for grabs. By Meeker’s estimate, the market value of just the top 10 information-intensive industries is more than $36 trillion.
Posted on Saturday, February 1, 2014
We’re pleased to report that our book, The Killer Apps: How Large Companies Can Out-Innovate Start-Ups, has been named a February book of the month selection by Kirkus Reviews and the Association of Independent Authors.
Posted on Thursday, October 3, 2013
Here’s an interview of Paul Carroll being interviewed on FoxBusiness about the attempt by several Microsoft investors to oust Bill Gates.
Paul’s opinion about whether Gates should be ousted: “My short answer is ‘no’. My long answer is ‘heck no!’.”
Posted on Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Here’s a CNBC interview with me on how driverless cars will transform the economy.
CNBC’s the Edge explores the limitless potential of innovation—from how new products and ideas will shape our lives to the long-term investment opportunity that will bring investors high-yield returns.
Posted on Wednesday, May 1, 2013
My Forbes series on driverless cars was such a hit—more than 575,000 views—that Paul and I expanded it into an ebook. I hope you’ll download it and consider writing an Amazon review.
Look for the full book, “The New Killer Apps: How Incumbents Can Beat Startups” on October 15, 2013. More details soon. In the meantime, find out more at our Facebook page.
Posted on Tuesday, January 29, 2013
My last few Forbes columns mark the first time I’ve written about markets sized in the trillions. I thought you might find them interesting.
They’re part of a series on the Google driverless car. Instead of focusing on the gee-whiz aspects, as most reports have done, I explore the potential for millions of lives saved and trillions of dollars in car-related revenue thrown up for grabs.
I’d love to get your comments. Please post them directly at Forbes or drop me a note.
This series draws from research for “The New Killer Apps: This Time, Incumbents Can Beat Startups,” a forthcoming book coauthored with Paul B. Carroll. To learn more, visit the book’s Facebook page.
Posted on Wednesday, August 22, 2012
We overestimate technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long term—even when we know that we tend to do so. This long-cited axiom is playing out again in the case of social media.
There should be no doubt about the short-term overestimation, given the initial exuberance and now the collapse of stocks like Zynga, Groupon and Facebook.
In an article at Forbes, I write about why the longer-term underestimation is harder to pin down, but even more dangerous to long-term success. And it is now well underway.
Please take a read and let me know what you think of it: Bubble Deflated, Social Media Will Now Change the World
Posted on Friday, August 17, 2012
You know from “Billion-Dollar Lessons” that I’m wary of using big acquisitions to fix strategic problems. You might also know that I like to play poker now and then. ;-)
In this article that just went up at HBR, I explain the why I like Google’s big acquisition of Motorola Mobility in poker terms:
Why Buying Motorola Was a Good Gamble for Google
Would you buy a piece of that bet? Let me know.
Posted on Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Like many, you might think of Xerox PARC as a technological marvel and a business failure. Due to high profile “failures” like it, your organization might celebrate “innovation” but frown on “invention.”
In a new Forbes article, I try to topple the conventional wisdom that Xerox PARC was a commercial failure and that “invention” is foolhardy.
You probably know that PARC’s early inventions underlie much of today’s IT industry and power global commerce. Did you know that Xerox actually reaped hundreds of billions in revenue from those inventions, while spending only about $45 million (in today’s dollars) to build most of them?
There were, of course, many things that Xerox could have done better with PARC. But, far from proving that large companies should not invest in breakthrough research, Xerox PARC shows that they must.
This is a lesson that has immediate urgency for market leaders in every technology-intensive industry. Like Michael Jordan, who always wanted the ball in clutch moments, market leaders should take greater control of their own futures in these disruptive times by pursuing more invention.
I hope you’ll take a look at the full article at Forbes and let me know what you think of it.
Here’s the link: The Lesson That Market Leaders Are Failing To Learn From Xerox PARC
Hope you’re having a great summer!
Posted on Wednesday, June 27, 2012
As reported in the WSJ, Best Buy’s interim CEO, G. Mike Mikan, sees ending the trend towards “showrooming” as the company’s number one priority. To do this, he plans to invest heavily in retraining Best Buy’s workforce. It is a worthy aspiration—the big box electronics retailer is sputtering as customers increasing use it as a place to browse merchandise before buying it at Amazon or some other online rival.
But, as I wrote in a column at Forbes, Best Buy’s fight against showrooming is doomed to fail, for three reasons: it consistently provides poorer service than its online competitors, it has structurally higher prices, and dominant customer and technological trends will increasingly conspire against it.
Here’s the link to that Forbes column.