My latest at Forbes:  Millions of iPhone-toting Apple fans are sure to queue up upon the Watch’s 2015 launch to buy it. For billions of other potential customers, however, the Watch’s close linkage and tethering to the iPhone could be a fundamental weakness.

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My latest at Forbes: The biggest innovation challenge facing many large companies is not “thinking big” but rather thinking too much. They are overwhelmed with more ideas than they can sort out, much less pursue. Here is a three-point plan for setting up a purposeful, systematic innovation process that explicitly deals with the challenge of too many “good” ideas.

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In my last posting at LinkedIn, I laid out three reasons for why large companies should out-innovate start-ups to capture the disruptive opportunities that are being enabled by a perfect storm of technological innovations. In my latest article, I offer eight rules for how they can do so.

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In my latest column at Forbes, I lay out six technological megatrends that will transform every information-intensive industry over the next five to ten years.

These industries are up for “reimagination,” to use a term popularized by Mary Meeker, the Kleiner Perkins venture capitalist. That’s because, as the following figure shows, the exponential progression of these technologies will create openings for new killer apps that overwhelm incremental business change. Huge market share and market value are being thrown up for grabs. By Meeker’s estimate, the market value of just the top 10 information-intensive industries is more than $36 trillion.

We’re pleased to report that our book, The Killer Apps: How Large Companies Can Out-Innovate Start-Ups, has been named a February book of the month selection by Kirkus Reviews and the Association of Independent Authors.

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Here’s an interview of Paul Carroll being interviewed on FoxBusiness about the attempt by several Microsoft investors to oust Bill Gates.

Paul’s opinion about whether Gates should be ousted: “My short answer is ‘no’. My long answer is ‘heck no!’.”


Here’s a CNBC interview with me on how driverless cars will transform the economy.

CNBC’s the Edge explores the limitless potential of innovation—from how new products and ideas will shape our lives to the long-term investment opportunity that will bring investors high-yield returns.

Hello all —

My Forbes series on driverless cars was such a hit—more than 575,000 views—that Paul and I expanded it into an ebook. I hope you’ll download it and consider writing an Amazon review.

Look for the full book, “The New Killer Apps: How Incumbents Can Beat Startups” on October 15, 2013. More details soon. In the meantime, find out more at our Facebook page.


My last few Forbes columns mark the first time I’ve written about markets sized in the trillions. I thought you might find them interesting.

They’re part of a series on the Google driverless car. Instead of focusing on the gee-whiz aspects, as most reports have done, I explore the potential for millions of lives saved and trillions of dollars in car-related revenue thrown up for grabs.

Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google’s Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

Google’s Trillion-Dollar Driverless Car — Part 2: The Ripple Effects

I’d love to get your comments. Please post them directly at Forbes or drop me a note.

This series draws from research for “The New Killer Apps: This Time, Incumbents Can Beat Startups,” a forthcoming book coauthored with Paul B. Carroll. To learn more, visit the book’s Facebook page.


We overestimate technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long term—even when we know that we tend to do so. This long-cited axiom is playing out again in the case of social media.

There should be no doubt about the short-term overestimation, given the initial exuberance and now the collapse of stocks like Zynga, Groupon and Facebook.

In an article at Forbes, I write about why the longer-term underestimation is harder to pin down, but even more dangerous to long-term success. And it is now well underway.

Please take a read and let me know what you think of it: Bubble Deflated, Social Media Will Now Change the World