The Devil's Advocate Group » Blog http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com We Stress Test Your Strategies Wed, 01 May 2013 18:59:57 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 Driverless Cars — A new Amazon eBook http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/driverless-cars-%e2%80%94-a-new-amazon-ebook/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/driverless-cars-%e2%80%94-a-new-amazon-ebook/#comments Wed, 01 May 2013 18:59:57 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=2081 Hello all — My Forbes series on driverless cars was such a hit—more than 575,000 views—that Paul and I expanded it into an ebook. I hope you'll download it and consider writing an Amazon review. Look for the full book, "The New Killer Apps: This Time, Incumbents Can Beat Startups" on September 4, 2013. More details soon. In the meantime, find out more at our Facebook page. Regards, Chunka]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/driverless-cars-%e2%80%94-a-new-amazon-ebook/feed/ 0 Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google’s Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/fasten-your-seatbelts-googles-driverless-car-is-worth-trillions/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/fasten-your-seatbelts-googles-driverless-car-is-worth-trillions/#comments Tue, 29 Jan 2013 16:08:55 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=2067 My last few Forbes columns mark the first time I've written about markets sized in the trillions. I thought you might find them interesting. They're part of a series on the Google driverless car. Instead of focusing on the gee-whiz aspects, as most reports have done, I explore the potential for millions of lives saved and trillions of dollars in car-related revenue thrown up for grabs. Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions Google's Trillion-Dollar Driverless Car — Part 2: The Ripple Effects I'd love to get your comments. Please post them directly at Forbes or drop me a note. This series draws from research for "The New Killer Apps: This Time, Incumbents Can Beat Startups," a forthcoming book coauthored with Paul B. Carroll. To learn more, visit the book's Facebook page. Regards, Chunka]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/fasten-your-seatbelts-googles-driverless-car-is-worth-trillions/feed/ 0 Bubble Deflated, Social Media Will Now Change the World http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/bubble-deflated-social-media-will-now-change-the-world/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/bubble-deflated-social-media-will-now-change-the-world/#comments Wed, 22 Aug 2012 14:52:37 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=2044 article at Forbes, I write about why the longer-term underestimation is harder to pin down, but even more dangerous to long-term success. And it is now well underway. Please take a read and let me know what you think of it: Bubble Deflated, Social Media Will Now Change the World]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/bubble-deflated-social-media-will-now-change-the-world/feed/ 0 Why Buying Motorola Was a Good Gamble for Google http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/why-buying-motorola-was-a-good-gamble-for-google/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/why-buying-motorola-was-a-good-gamble-for-google/#comments Fri, 17 Aug 2012 15:14:57 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=2060 You know from "Billion-Dollar Lessons" that I'm wary of using big acquisitions to fix strategic problems. You might also know that I like to play poker now and then. ;-) In this article that just went up at HBR, I explain the why I like Google's big acquisition of Motorola Mobility in poker terms: Why Buying Motorola Was a Good Gamble for Google Would you buy a piece of that bet? Let me know. Regards, Chunka]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/why-buying-motorola-was-a-good-gamble-for-google/feed/ 0 The Lesson That Market Leaders Are Failing To Learn From Xerox PARC http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/the-lesson-that-market-leaders-are-failing-to-learn-from-xerox-parc/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/the-lesson-that-market-leaders-are-failing-to-learn-from-xerox-parc/#comments Wed, 01 Aug 2012 14:44:40 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=2039 new Forbes article, I try to topple the conventional wisdom that Xerox PARC was a commercial failure and that "invention" is foolhardy. You probably know that PARC's early inventions underlie much of today's IT industry and power global commerce. Did you know that Xerox actually reaped hundreds of billions in revenue from those inventions, while spending only about $45 million (in today's dollars) to build most of them? There were, of course, many things that Xerox could have done better with PARC. But, far from proving that large companies should not invest in breakthrough research, Xerox PARC shows that they must. This is a lesson that has immediate urgency for market leaders in every technology-intensive industry. Like Michael Jordan, who always wanted the ball in clutch moments, market leaders should take greater control of their own futures in these disruptive times by pursuing more invention. I hope you'll take a look at the full article at Forbes and let me know what you think of it. Here's the link: The Lesson That Market Leaders Are Failing To Learn From Xerox PARC Hope you're having a great summer! Regards, Chunka]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/the-lesson-that-market-leaders-are-failing-to-learn-from-xerox-parc/feed/ 0 Three Reasons Why Best Buy’s Fight Against ‘Showrooming’ is Hopeless http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/three-reasons-why-best-buys-fight-against-showrooming-is-hopeless/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/three-reasons-why-best-buys-fight-against-showrooming-is-hopeless/#comments Wed, 27 Jun 2012 20:24:41 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=2019 As reported in the WSJ, Best Buy’s interim CEO, G. Mike Mikan, sees ending the trend towards “showrooming” as the company’s number one priority. To do this, he plans to invest heavily in retraining Best Buy’s workforce. It is a worthy aspiration—the big box electronics retailer is sputtering as customers increasing use it as a place to browse merchandise before buying it at Amazon or some other online rival. But, as I wrote in a column at Forbes, Best Buy's fight against showrooming is doomed to fail, for three reasons: it consistently provides poorer service than its online competitors, it has structurally higher prices, and dominant customer and technological trends will increasingly conspire against it. Here's the link to that Forbes column.  ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/three-reasons-why-best-buys-fight-against-showrooming-is-hopeless/feed/ 0 Barnes & Noble Out-Innovates Microsoft: How Could This Happen? http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/barnes-noble-out-innovates-microsoft-how-could-this-happen/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/barnes-noble-out-innovates-microsoft-how-could-this-happen/#comments Thu, 03 May 2012 16:29:16 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=2028 Strategically, Microsoft’s investment in Barnes & Noble’s Nook Reader is no big deal. Sure, Microsoft overpaid a third-tier player to preserve a foothold in an emerging product sector and the chances of that $605 million investment paying off are slim. Microsoft had few options, however, and the price is a tiny part of Microsoft’s cash hoard.The more interesting aspect of the story is how Microsoft and Barnes & Noble, both of which once sat atop their respective industries, responded differently to technology advances that threatened to disrupt both their positions. Microsoft foresaw the coming of both mobile computing and e-readers and still got toppled. Barnes & Noble got surprised, at a time when technology is crushing its industry’s business model, yet responded far better than Microsoft did. Therein lies an interesting tale—one that offers both hope and caution to other market leaders facing similar disruptions.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/barnes-noble-out-innovates-microsoft-how-could-this-happen/feed/ 0 The Fallacy of ‘The Seven Habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives’ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/the-fallacy-of-%e2%80%98the-seven-habits-of-spectacularly-unsuccessful-executives%e2%80%99/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/the-fallacy-of-%e2%80%98the-seven-habits-of-spectacularly-unsuccessful-executives%e2%80%99/#comments Tue, 14 Feb 2012 16:11:05 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1993 You might have seen Eric Jackson’s recent column at Forbes offering a “CEOs Hall of Shame,” which builds on his much-read “The Seven Habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives.” The pieces went viral and have attracted more than 2 million page views. In my column this morning at Forbes, I argue that they are all wrong. The Fallacy of "The Seven Habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives" I'd love to hear what you think of this important topic, and I'd especially appreciate it if you shared this article widely. Regards, Chunka]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/the-fallacy-of-%e2%80%98the-seven-habits-of-spectacularly-unsuccessful-executives%e2%80%99/feed/ 0 How Kodak Failed http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/how-kodak-failed/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/how-kodak-failed/#comments Wed, 18 Jan 2012 16:29:36 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=2009 There are few corporate blunders as staggering as Kodak’s missed opportunities in digital photography, a technology that it invented. This strategic failure was the direct cause of Kodak’s decades-long decline as digital photography destroyed its film-based business model. A new book by my Devil’s Advocate Group colleague, Vince Barabba, a former Kodak executive, offers insight on the choices that set Kodak on the path to bankruptcy. Barabba’s book, “The Decision Loom: A Design for Interactive Decision-Making in Organizations,” also offers sage advice for how other organizations grappling with disruptive technologies might avoid their own Kodak moments. To read the entire post, click to go to my Forbes blog.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/how-kodak-failed/feed/ 0 What Steve Jobs Learned From Edwin Land of Polaroid http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/what-steve-jobs-learned-from-edwin-land-of-polaroid/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/what-steve-jobs-learned-from-edwin-land-of-polaroid/#comments Wed, 26 Oct 2011 16:59:54 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1986 Several observers, including Christopher Bonanos and Erik Calonius, have pointed out that Steve Jobs was greatly inspired by Edwin H. Land, the inventor of instant photography and founder of Polaroid. Walter Isaacson, in his biography of Steve Jobs, quotes Jobs as saying that Land was one of his childhood heroes. A Polaroid veteran's recent accounts detail the lessons that Jobs took from Dr. Land. These lessons would shape Apple's culture and fuel Jobs' determination to help that culture survive his own death. The insights on the Jobs/Land connection were offered in a recent column at Ad Age, by Carl Johnson that is well worth reading and in subsequent conversations. Johnson should know; he learned them himself from Edwin Land when he became VP of worldwide advertising at Polaroid in the early 1980s Read the entire article at Forbes.com.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/what-steve-jobs-learned-from-edwin-land-of-polaroid/feed/ 0 For a Preview of the iPad3, Watch This 23-Year-Old Apple Video http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/for-a-preview-of-the-ipad3-watch-this-23-year-old-apple-video/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/for-a-preview-of-the-ipad3-watch-this-23-year-old-apple-video/#comments Mon, 24 Oct 2011 15:45:42 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1983 Anticipation is building for the iPad3, with rumors flying that the next generation of Apple’s tablet has moved into production and will go on sale later this year or early next year. Whenever it arrives, the iPad3 is sure to be regarded as another masterstroke by the late Steve Jobs. While the details of the iPad3 are shrouded in Apple’s signature secrecy, its broad shape can be easily discerned. That’s because Apple laid out an amazingly prescient vision of the iPad3 23 years ago. That earlier effort was also a marvelous example of how, even in the most disruptive domains, companies can craft articulate visions of the future. Cue the video, and I’ll point out a few things. Read the entire article at Forbes.com ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/for-a-preview-of-the-ipad3-watch-this-23-year-old-apple-video/feed/ 0 Five Dangerous Lessons to Learn From Steve Jobs http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/five-dangerous-lessons-to-learn-from-steve-jobs/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/five-dangerous-lessons-to-learn-from-steve-jobs/#comments Mon, 17 Oct 2011 15:36:09 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1973 Like the golfer who hits from the back tees and consistently carries bunkers 280 yards down the fairway, Steve Jobs made most other business leaders look like weekend hackers. His devotion, drive, skills, and intuition led to unparalleled success. But, just as trying to imitate great golfers won’t enable you to hit over those far-away bunkers, mimicking Steve Jobs’ management style won’t transform you into him or your company into Apple. Resist, therefore, the natural urge to be like Steve. Know that the most visible elements of his style were just surface manifestations of his genius, not the secrets to his success. Read the entire article at Forbes.com.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/five-dangerous-lessons-to-learn-from-steve-jobs/feed/ 0 We Can Save Hundreds of Millions From Deadly Drinking Water http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/we-can-save-hundreds-of-millions-from-deadly-drinking-water/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/we-can-save-hundreds-of-millions-from-deadly-drinking-water/#comments Tue, 11 Oct 2011 19:16:22 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1939 the billions of people that live in water poverty and the danger that everyone faces when disaster destroys access to clean drinking water.
Michael Pritchard with Lifesaver Bottle
Luckily, my water was clean and delicious. Michael Pritchard, a British inventor, served it to me after running it through his Lifesaver ultra filtration water bottle. Pritchard’s invention is a thrilling example of human ingenuity, and offers hope that a better solution to the life-threatening lack of clean drinking water faced is within reach. Read the entire article at Forbes.com  ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/we-can-save-hundreds-of-millions-from-deadly-drinking-water/feed/ 0 Chunka Mui Interviewed on NPR’s All Things Considered http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/chunka-mui-interviewed-on-all-things-considered/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/chunka-mui-interviewed-on-all-things-considered/#comments Mon, 10 Oct 2011 22:35:38 +0000 admin http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1946 Guy Raz talks to Chunka Mui, who co-wrote Billion Dollar Lessons: What You Can Learn from the Most Inexcusable Business Failures of the Last 25 Years, about the successes and failures of companies that present to the public a product that changes from what people are used to. Netflix has withdrawn a plan to mail DVDs to people under a new name. Coke tried to market New Coke. What will the public accept? What won't they? And how do you know it's time to reverse course? Listen to the interview at NPR.  ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/chunka-mui-interviewed-on-all-things-considered/feed/ 0 Netflix Smartly Backtracks on Qwikster http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-smartly-backtracks-on-qwikster/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-smartly-backtracks-on-qwikster/#comments Mon, 10 Oct 2011 16:04:17 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1951 In a concession to the flurry of customer complaints that accompanied the recently announced separation of its DVD and streaming businesses, Netflix just notified its customers that it would not be separating the streaming and DVD customer service websites.
As I argued in a recent post, Netflix’s plan to quickly separate the two parts of the business didn’t make sense for customers. To me, Reed Hastings’ instinct to separate into two businesses had merit from internal and investor standpoints, but he should have taken the awful customer and investor reaction to the initial plan and pricing changes as a signal to stop, or at least wait, on the reorganization. He didn’t at that point, but now seems to have learned the right lesson. Read the entire article at Forbes.com
]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-smartly-backtracks-on-qwikster/feed/ 0 Apple’s Unlikely Saviors: Gil Amelio and Jean-Louis Gassee http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/apples-unlikely-saviors-gil-amelio-and-jean-louis-gassee/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/apples-unlikely-saviors-gil-amelio-and-jean-louis-gassee/#comments Fri, 07 Oct 2011 16:49:04 +0000 Paul Carroll http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1927 In the midst of all the encomiums for Steve Jobs — and they are well-deserved — I find it fascinating that his successes of the past 15 years occurred on a razor's edge. Without Gil Amelio's desperation and Jean-Louis Gassee's overreaching, the Jobs legacy would be far less than it is. Despite what was clearly genius, many of his breakthroughs came so close to not happening. Read the complete article on my HBR blog. ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/apples-unlikely-saviors-gil-amelio-and-jean-louis-gassee/feed/ 0 Netflix Doubles Down on a Bad Bet http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-doubles-down-on-a-bad-bet/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-doubles-down-on-a-bad-bet/#comments Mon, 19 Sep 2011 15:48:12 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1966 Netflix blog and in an email to customers this morning, Reed Hastings, Netflix’s chief executive, announced the separation of his company into two business, one for DVDs and another for streaming. The separation solidifies Netflix’s pricing changes of two months ago, when the company unbundled its streaming service and raised prices for customers. As Hastings describes it, the plan and pricing changes were in preparation for this structural change, and he apologized for not better communicating its rationale to customers. Reed Hastings has been masterful in his development of Netflix, including the way he nurtured his streaming business without leaving an opening for competitors. But his handling of this episode is a misstep. His instinct to separate into two businesses has merit, but he should have taken the awful customer and investor reaction to the initial plan changes as a signal to stop, or at least wait, on the reorganization. Instead, he is rushing ahead to double down on a bad bet.  ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-doubles-down-on-a-bad-bet/feed/ 0 Best Buy Gets Amazoned: Is It Doomed? http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/best-buy-gets-amazoned-is-it-doomed/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/best-buy-gets-amazoned-is-it-doomed/#comments Thu, 15 Sep 2011 14:59:38 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1959 My friend, Paul Carroll, is peeved at Best Buy. It stems from the time his daughter’s puppy chewed up her laptop’s printer cord. Paul knew he could get the really simple cord for $2.50 on Amazon, but he had to buy it at Best Buy for $30 because she needed the cord immediately. Best Buy extracted a tremendous premium that day, and lost Paul’s good will forever. So, for Paul and many other observers, it came as no surprise when Best Buy announced that sales had dropped for a fifth-consecutive quarter. Profits took an even bigger hit, as they dropped 30 percent. It was a surprise for many investors, however, who had the audacity to hope for a trend reversal. But that hope vaporized, and investors drove shares to their lowest level since 2008. Read the entire article at Forbes.com]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/best-buy-gets-amazoned-is-it-doomed/feed/ 0 To Reform Education, Outsource It To Parents http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/to-reform-education-outsource-it-to-parents/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/to-reform-education-outsource-it-to-parents/#comments Thu, 08 Sep 2011 15:07:38 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1910 Reforming K-12 education is a wicked problem. Even the best ideas are inevitably incomplete and contradictory. All fly in the face of entrenched interests and are beaten around by opposing ideologies. Not only are there no silver bullets, there isn’t even a common view of the target. Rather than hope for reform, parents should consider opting out of the mess and focus instead on their own kids’ learning. Read the full article at my Forbes blog. ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/to-reform-education-outsource-it-to-parents/feed/ 0 No Worries, iPad, Amazon’s Android Tablet Is Just a Nook-Killer. http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/no-worries-ipad-amazons-android-tablet-is-just-a-nook-killer/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/no-worries-ipad-amazons-android-tablet-is-just-a-nook-killer/#comments Tue, 06 Sep 2011 14:01:11 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1917 MG Siegler offers a detailed rundown on Amazon’s much-anticipated Android-based tablet. Siegler’s report is based on first-hand experience with a working “design verification testing” unit, and he is quite enthusiastic: "I’ve seen it and used it. And I’m happy to report that it’s going to be a big deal. Huge, potentially." My reading of the details, however, is that the Amazon tablet is not going to be all that huge. Barnes and Noble should be afraid. Apple, however, has little to fear. Read the full article at my Forbes blog.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/no-worries-ipad-amazons-android-tablet-is-just-a-nook-killer/feed/ 0