The Devil's Advocate Group http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com We Stress Test Your Strategies Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:05:57 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 What Steve Jobs Learned From Edwin Land of Polaroid http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/what-steve-jobs-learned-from-edwin-land-of-polaroid/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/what-steve-jobs-learned-from-edwin-land-of-polaroid/#comments Wed, 26 Oct 2011 16:59:54 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1986 Several observers, including Christopher Bonanos and Erik Calonius, have pointed out that Steve Jobs was greatly inspired by Edwin H. Land, the inventor of instant photography and founder of Polaroid. Walter Isaacson, in his biography of Steve Jobs, quotes Jobs as saying that Land was one of his childhood heroes. A Polaroid veteran's recent accounts detail the lessons that Jobs took from Dr. Land. These lessons would shape Apple's culture and fuel Jobs' determination to help that culture survive his own death. The insights on the Jobs/Land connection were offered in a recent column at Ad Age, by Carl Johnson that is well worth reading and in subsequent conversations. Johnson should know; he learned them himself from Edwin Land when he became VP of worldwide advertising at Polaroid in the early 1980s Read the entire article at Forbes.com.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/what-steve-jobs-learned-from-edwin-land-of-polaroid/feed/ 0 For a Preview of the iPad3, Watch This 23-Year-Old Apple Video http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/for-a-preview-of-the-ipad3-watch-this-23-year-old-apple-video/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/for-a-preview-of-the-ipad3-watch-this-23-year-old-apple-video/#comments Mon, 24 Oct 2011 15:45:42 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1983 Anticipation is building for the iPad3, with rumors flying that the next generation of Apple’s tablet has moved into production and will go on sale later this year or early next year. Whenever it arrives, the iPad3 is sure to be regarded as another masterstroke by the late Steve Jobs. While the details of the iPad3 are shrouded in Apple’s signature secrecy, its broad shape can be easily discerned. That’s because Apple laid out an amazingly prescient vision of the iPad3 23 years ago. That earlier effort was also a marvelous example of how, even in the most disruptive domains, companies can craft articulate visions of the future. Cue the video, and I’ll point out a few things. Read the entire article at Forbes.com ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/for-a-preview-of-the-ipad3-watch-this-23-year-old-apple-video/feed/ 0 Five Dangerous Lessons to Learn From Steve Jobs http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/five-dangerous-lessons-to-learn-from-steve-jobs/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/five-dangerous-lessons-to-learn-from-steve-jobs/#comments Mon, 17 Oct 2011 15:36:09 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1973 Like the golfer who hits from the back tees and consistently carries bunkers 280 yards down the fairway, Steve Jobs made most other business leaders look like weekend hackers. His devotion, drive, skills, and intuition led to unparalleled success. But, just as trying to imitate great golfers won’t enable you to hit over those far-away bunkers, mimicking Steve Jobs’ management style won’t transform you into him or your company into Apple. Resist, therefore, the natural urge to be like Steve. Know that the most visible elements of his style were just surface manifestations of his genius, not the secrets to his success. Read the entire article at Forbes.com.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/five-dangerous-lessons-to-learn-from-steve-jobs/feed/ 0 We Can Save Hundreds of Millions From Deadly Drinking Water http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/we-can-save-hundreds-of-millions-from-deadly-drinking-water/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/we-can-save-hundreds-of-millions-from-deadly-drinking-water/#comments Tue, 11 Oct 2011 19:16:22 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1939 the billions of people that live in water poverty and the danger that everyone faces when disaster destroys access to clean drinking water.
Michael Pritchard with Lifesaver Bottle
Luckily, my water was clean and delicious. Michael Pritchard, a British inventor, served it to me after running it through his Lifesaver ultra filtration water bottle. Pritchard’s invention is a thrilling example of human ingenuity, and offers hope that a better solution to the life-threatening lack of clean drinking water faced is within reach. Read the entire article at Forbes.com  ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/we-can-save-hundreds-of-millions-from-deadly-drinking-water/feed/ 0 Chunka Mui Interviewed on NPR’s All Things Considered http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/chunka-mui-interviewed-on-all-things-considered/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/chunka-mui-interviewed-on-all-things-considered/#comments Mon, 10 Oct 2011 22:35:38 +0000 admin http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1946 Guy Raz talks to Chunka Mui, who co-wrote Billion Dollar Lessons: What You Can Learn from the Most Inexcusable Business Failures of the Last 25 Years, about the successes and failures of companies that present to the public a product that changes from what people are used to. Netflix has withdrawn a plan to mail DVDs to people under a new name. Coke tried to market New Coke. What will the public accept? What won't they? And how do you know it's time to reverse course? Listen to the interview at NPR.  ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/chunka-mui-interviewed-on-all-things-considered/feed/ 0 Netflix Smartly Backtracks on Qwikster http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-smartly-backtracks-on-qwikster/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-smartly-backtracks-on-qwikster/#comments Mon, 10 Oct 2011 16:04:17 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1951 In a concession to the flurry of customer complaints that accompanied the recently announced separation of its DVD and streaming businesses, Netflix just notified its customers that it would not be separating the streaming and DVD customer service websites.
As I argued in a recent post, Netflix’s plan to quickly separate the two parts of the business didn’t make sense for customers. To me, Reed Hastings’ instinct to separate into two businesses had merit from internal and investor standpoints, but he should have taken the awful customer and investor reaction to the initial plan and pricing changes as a signal to stop, or at least wait, on the reorganization. He didn’t at that point, but now seems to have learned the right lesson. Read the entire article at Forbes.com
]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-smartly-backtracks-on-qwikster/feed/ 0 Apple’s Unlikely Saviors: Gil Amelio and Jean-Louis Gassee http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/apples-unlikely-saviors-gil-amelio-and-jean-louis-gassee/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/apples-unlikely-saviors-gil-amelio-and-jean-louis-gassee/#comments Fri, 07 Oct 2011 16:49:04 +0000 Paul Carroll http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1927 In the midst of all the encomiums for Steve Jobs — and they are well-deserved — I find it fascinating that his successes of the past 15 years occurred on a razor's edge. Without Gil Amelio's desperation and Jean-Louis Gassee's overreaching, the Jobs legacy would be far less than it is. Despite what was clearly genius, many of his breakthroughs came so close to not happening. Read the complete article on my HBR blog. ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/apples-unlikely-saviors-gil-amelio-and-jean-louis-gassee/feed/ 0 Netflix Doubles Down on a Bad Bet http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-doubles-down-on-a-bad-bet/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-doubles-down-on-a-bad-bet/#comments Mon, 19 Sep 2011 15:48:12 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1966 Netflix blog and in an email to customers this morning, Reed Hastings, Netflix’s chief executive, announced the separation of his company into two business, one for DVDs and another for streaming. The separation solidifies Netflix’s pricing changes of two months ago, when the company unbundled its streaming service and raised prices for customers. As Hastings describes it, the plan and pricing changes were in preparation for this structural change, and he apologized for not better communicating its rationale to customers. Reed Hastings has been masterful in his development of Netflix, including the way he nurtured his streaming business without leaving an opening for competitors. But his handling of this episode is a misstep. His instinct to separate into two businesses has merit, but he should have taken the awful customer and investor reaction to the initial plan changes as a signal to stop, or at least wait, on the reorganization. Instead, he is rushing ahead to double down on a bad bet.  ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/netflix-doubles-down-on-a-bad-bet/feed/ 0 Best Buy Gets Amazoned: Is It Doomed? http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/best-buy-gets-amazoned-is-it-doomed/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/best-buy-gets-amazoned-is-it-doomed/#comments Thu, 15 Sep 2011 14:59:38 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1959 My friend, Paul Carroll, is peeved at Best Buy. It stems from the time his daughter’s puppy chewed up her laptop’s printer cord. Paul knew he could get the really simple cord for $2.50 on Amazon, but he had to buy it at Best Buy for $30 because she needed the cord immediately. Best Buy extracted a tremendous premium that day, and lost Paul’s good will forever. So, for Paul and many other observers, it came as no surprise when Best Buy announced that sales had dropped for a fifth-consecutive quarter. Profits took an even bigger hit, as they dropped 30 percent. It was a surprise for many investors, however, who had the audacity to hope for a trend reversal. But that hope vaporized, and investors drove shares to their lowest level since 2008. Read the entire article at Forbes.com]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/best-buy-gets-amazoned-is-it-doomed/feed/ 0 To Reform Education, Outsource It To Parents http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/to-reform-education-outsource-it-to-parents/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/to-reform-education-outsource-it-to-parents/#comments Thu, 08 Sep 2011 15:07:38 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1910 Reforming K-12 education is a wicked problem. Even the best ideas are inevitably incomplete and contradictory. All fly in the face of entrenched interests and are beaten around by opposing ideologies. Not only are there no silver bullets, there isn’t even a common view of the target. Rather than hope for reform, parents should consider opting out of the mess and focus instead on their own kids’ learning. Read the full article at my Forbes blog. ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/to-reform-education-outsource-it-to-parents/feed/ 0 No Worries, iPad, Amazon’s Android Tablet Is Just a Nook-Killer. http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/no-worries-ipad-amazons-android-tablet-is-just-a-nook-killer/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/no-worries-ipad-amazons-android-tablet-is-just-a-nook-killer/#comments Tue, 06 Sep 2011 14:01:11 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1917 MG Siegler offers a detailed rundown on Amazon’s much-anticipated Android-based tablet. Siegler’s report is based on first-hand experience with a working “design verification testing” unit, and he is quite enthusiastic: "I’ve seen it and used it. And I’m happy to report that it’s going to be a big deal. Huge, potentially." My reading of the details, however, is that the Amazon tablet is not going to be all that huge. Barnes and Noble should be afraid. Apple, however, has little to fear. Read the full article at my Forbes blog.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/no-worries-ipad-amazons-android-tablet-is-just-a-nook-killer/feed/ 0 Is the HP TouchPad Poised for a Coca-Cola Classic Moment? http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/is-the-hp-touchpad-poised-for-a-coca-cola-classic-moment/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/is-the-hp-touchpad-poised-for-a-coca-cola-classic-moment/#comments Fri, 02 Sep 2011 17:47:18 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1923 The HP TouchPad tablet was major a distraction a few weeks ago when HP CEO Léo Apotheker unveiled his reinvention plan. The TouchPad had been on the market for less than two months but was gaining no traction. Like Agamemnon sacrificing his daughter, Iphigenia, to appease the gods before departing for Troy, Apotheker killed the TouchPad in an attempt to appease industry analysts. It was a dramatic demonstration of HP’s new focus as it pursued Apotheker’s enterprise-services oriented strategy. Apotheker’s sacrifice was perhaps too abrupt. Now that HP has clarified the spin-off plans for its orphaned PC business, can HP do anything but eventually resurrect the TouchPad? Read the rest of this article at my Forbes blog.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/is-the-hp-touchpad-poised-for-a-coca-cola-classic-moment/feed/ 0 A Measure of Steve Jobs http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/a-measure-of-steve-jobs/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/a-measure-of-steve-jobs/#comments Thu, 25 Aug 2011 16:19:44 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1849 It’s hard not to start this morning without a reflection on Steve Jobs. His personal story is inspiring, and his record of success over the last 30 years has been spectacular. To say that Steve Jobs was a great CEO that left Apple on top would be an understatement. I look forward to all the illuminating stories that will be written about him. But, as I sipped my coffee over the morning papers, I couldn’t help but notice Steve Jobs’ influence in the other articles, the articles that didn’t directly address him or his resignation. To get a measure of the man through your peripheral vision, consider these articles in this morning’s NY Times: Read the entire article at my Forbes.com Blog.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/a-measure-of-steve-jobs/feed/ 0 Warren Buffett Is Right On Taxes — But It Is Not About Fairness http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/warren-buffett-is-right-on-taxes-but-it-is-not-about-fairness/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/warren-buffett-is-right-on-taxes-but-it-is-not-about-fairness/#comments Tue, 23 Aug 2011 14:12:29 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1870 At the heart of every complicated strategy are a few critical assumptions upon which those strategies turn. Get the assumptions right, and you still have a lot of work to do. Get them wrong, and almost nothing else matters. Assume, for example, that film is a growth business in the face of digital photography, and you’ll squander billions looking for it. Assume there are synergies between AOL and Time Warner, and you’ll destroy hundreds of billions in value. Getting the assumptions right is critical in business, and in the rest of life, too—even taxes. Part of the problem with bad assumptions is that we forget we make them, so we continue down the wrong path long after our assumptions have been disproved. The debate about the fairness of taxes that Warren Buffett kicked off recently is a great example of assumptions that have been forgotten or ignored. Read the full article at my Forbes.com blog.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/warren-buffett-is-right-on-taxes-but-it-is-not-about-fairness/feed/ 0 HP’s $12 Billion Conference Call http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/hp/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/hp/#comments Mon, 22 Aug 2011 14:16:17 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1876 In interviews for our book, Billion-Dollar Lessons, Paul Carroll and I talked to a number of CEOs about the kinds of things that can distort clear thinking. High on their list were quarterly conference calls. While CEOs would prefer to deliberate carefully behind closed doors, they have to deal with a cacophony of questions every quarter from young MBA know-it-alls. If earnings, forecasts or other news are anything less than great, there will be a bunch of squawking (and downgrades) unless senior management can promise a strategy that will soon make things hum. You’d be amazed how many acquisitions or cost-cutting moves are rushed to conclusion in the days or hours leading up to one of these conference calls. Or maybe you wouldn’t. Imagine the thinking that went on in the executive suite at HP in the run up to last week’s conference call.... Read the full article at Forbes.com.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/hp/feed/ 0 Should Google Have Dropped Android? http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/should-google-have-dropped-android/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/should-google-have-dropped-android/#comments Fri, 19 Aug 2011 17:51:40 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1887 Google made a big mistake by buying Motorola. He argues that Google only did it to save Android and that it should have, instead, cut its losses and dropped Android. I posted a short dissenting comment at Adam’s blog, and thought I’d expand my position here. To me, Adam’s distaste for the acquisition has merit because of its complexity and the difficulty of pulling it off. More than two-thirds of large takeovers reduce the value of the acquiring company, and most of them are less intricate than this one. But Adam’s central thesis is that Android isn’t worth saving, and that’s the part that I question. Continue reading this article at Forbes.com ]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/should-google-have-dropped-android/feed/ 0 Motorola + Sprint = Google’s AT&T, Verizon and Comcast Killer http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/motorola-sprint-googles-att-verizon-and-comcast-killer/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/motorola-sprint-googles-att-verizon-and-comcast-killer/#comments Mon, 15 Aug 2011 15:43:42 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1602 acquiring Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion; imagine the possibilities if it also acquires Sprint, which would only cost about $10 billion more. Here is one killer app that comes to my mind: an unlimited voice, video and data solution, including WiFi, 4G, and state-of-the art Android smartphones and tablets. No separate, expensive mobile voice plans. No data limits that throttle video and games. No expensive video bundles just to watch one or two favorites. Look forward to, instead, a world of fast, fat and dumb wireless, cheap voice and video, and unbundled content. Such an offering would destroy the fiction that internet, cellular and cable TV are separate, overlapping industries. In reality, they are now all just applications riding on top of the same platform. It is just that innovation has been slowed because two slices of those applications, phone and TV, are controlled by aging oligopolies. Read the full article at Forbes.com.]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/motorola-sprint-googles-att-verizon-and-comcast-killer/feed/ 0 Facebook’s Privacy Issues Are Even Deeper Than We Knew http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/facebook%e2%80%99s-privacy-issues-are-even-deeper-than-we-knew/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/facebook%e2%80%99s-privacy-issues-are-even-deeper-than-we-knew/#comments Mon, 08 Aug 2011 14:52:36 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1573 Questions about what social networks mean for personal privacy and security have been brought to a head by research at Carnegie Mellon University that shows that Facebook has essentially become a worldwide photo identification database. Paired with related research, we’re looking at the prospect where good, bad and ugly actors will be able identify a face in a crowd and know sensitive personal information about that person. Read the full article at my Forbes.com blog...]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/facebook%e2%80%99s-privacy-issues-are-even-deeper-than-we-knew/feed/ 0 Aspire to Emulate Apple? Unfortunately, You’re No Steve Jobs. http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/aspire-to-emulate-apple-unfortunately-you%e2%80%99re-no-steve-jobs/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/aspire-to-emulate-apple-unfortunately-you%e2%80%99re-no-steve-jobs/#comments Mon, 25 Jul 2011 16:45:02 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1582 In a recent NY Times article, titled The Auteur Vs. the Committee, Randall Stross stokes a debate that rages in world of innovation: Is it better to rely a single genius or group collaboration? Stross centers his analysis on the contrast between Apple, where “one is the magic number” (and we all know who the “one” is), and Google, which “has followed the conventional approach, with lots of people playing a role.” Here’s where I come out on this debate: The Apple innovation model is better, as long as you have Steve Jobs. Everybody else had better stick to the Google model. Read the full article at Forbes.com...]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/aspire-to-emulate-apple-unfortunately-you%e2%80%99re-no-steve-jobs/feed/ 0 Borders and Kodak Are Facing Doomsday. Who’s Next? http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/borders-and-kodak-are-facing-doomsday-who%e2%80%99s-next/ http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/borders-and-kodak-are-facing-doomsday-who%e2%80%99s-next/#comments Fri, 22 Jul 2011 14:15:08 +0000 Chunka Mui http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/?p=1588 To avoid having their own Border-like or Kodak moments, executives must step outside their quarter-by-quarter planning horizons and go through exercises that can force them to come to terms with scenarios that could mean their doom. One exercise is the doomsday scenario. People grab a blank sheet of paper and imagine that they were designing their worst competitor—one that had lots of capital, lots of expertise and great interest in attacking the incumbents in the market. Once people see their worst nightmare on paper, they can take a more realistic look at their potential vulnerabilities. Read the full article at my Forbes.com blog]]> http://www.devilsadvocategroup.com/borders-and-kodak-are-facing-doomsday-who%e2%80%99s-next/feed/ 0